Bypolls: No scares for governments with voters in a pro-incumbent mood

Were the shock results of the Lok Sabha elections a one-off event? It would seem so with the behemoth-like BJP election machinery showing no sign of nervousness or decline and the voters also in no mood to punish BJP. 

Recall that one of the arguments of the Opposition with regard to the Lok Sabha mandate was that it would have been a closer contest had media captured and broadcasted the true picture of anti-incumbency and the BJP hadn’t enjoyed a phenomenal advantage in terms of resources and EC benevolence. 

In any case, the Opposition has not been able to turn the diminution of the national government into a coalition and the diminished role Narendra Modi is playing in campaigning to its advantage in the elections since. 

In 48 assembly bypolls spread over 14 states, incumbents including BJP sailed through without any damage. In 9 seats in Uttar Pradesh, BJP and its ally RLD were winning/leading seven, putting paid to Akhilesh Yadav’s hopes of further undermining Yogi Adityanath’s position. There could also be a message to the Samajwadi Party that it cannot singlehandedly counter BJP and may need Congress, howsoever erratic and rootless, to shoulder some of the burden. 

Similarly, in Rajasthan, Bhajanlal Sharma, has warded off the Congress challenge winning five of the seven bypolls. Chhattisgarh also showed that the 2023 result was no flash in the pan and in Uttarakhand, BJP retained the prestigious Kedarnath seat. In five seats in Assam and four in Bihar, states headed to polls in 2026 and 2025 respectively, BJP and its allies gave no quarter to the opposition. 

AAP’s 3-1 tally against Congress in Punjab will dampen the Congress mood, especially with the state Congress chief Amarinder Raja Warring’s wife Amrita Warring losing in his pocket borough Gidderbaha. 

The pro-incumbent mood was also manifested in Trinamool Congress’s 6-0 blanking of BJP in West Bengal and Congress’s 3-0 record against the BJP-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka. Both Mamata Banerjee and Siddaramaiah had appeared to lose their grip over their government and party in recent months and the results will be a shot in the arm.  

Another chief minister weakened by developments in recent months, Pinarayi Vijayan, won’t mind the split 1-1 bypoll verdict from Kerala. Conversely, a 0-2 tally just before the CPM party conference would have been debilitating.

Bypolls largely tend to favour the incumbent as voters know that an elected representative belonging to the ruling party is more likely to bring them the fruits of development. For this reason, the pro-incumbency mood is no pointer to the favourites in the next state assembly election, whenever they occur. At best, it gives chief ministers a large degree of comfort and insulation against detractors within and outside their party fold.